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Campaign week three in review
While both major parties have long claimed cost-of-living would dominate the election, this week made clear that housing is where they see the real battleground.
With many voters struggling under surging rents and out-of-reach mortgages, both Labor and the Coalition are chasing their attention with bold but criticised promises of help. Meanwhile, a different force continues to shape the campaign from abroad. The shadow of Donald Trump — and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s perceived proximity to it — continues to loom over the Coalition’s campaign.
The week also saw the campaign’s two biggest set pieces: the parties’ official campaign launches, and the second leaders’ debate. The former revealed much about how the parties want to be seen. The latter once again left things where they are.
A tale of two campaign launches
The week began with the formal launches of both campaigns, Labor in Perth and the Liberals in western Sydney. The near-simultaneous timing highlighted how carefully each side is trying to manage the political theatre of the election, but also how far apart they are in tone and momentum.
Labor’s launch was businesslike, focused on economic stability, modest personal tax cuts, and a housing package that built on previously announced supply-side measures. The message Labor wanted to convey was one of stability in uncertain times and competence over chaos.
The Liberal Party’s launch leaned into cost-of-living pain and the need for economic change, with Mr Dutton promising a suite of tax and housing measures aimed at younger voters. The message was crafted to convey empathy and concern.
Housing policy alternatives
While both parties chose housing as the centrepiece of their campaign launches, highlighting its centrality to the election, their promises were met with widespread scepticism from economists and housing experts.
Labor is pitching a mix of demand-side and supply-side measures: a broadened First Home Guarantee, changes to price caps and income thresholds, and a A$10 billion package to fund the construction of up to 100,000 homes. These homes would be earmarked for first home buyers and built in partnership with the states and industry.
The Coalition’s centrepiece is a proposal to make mortgage interest payments tax-deductible for first home buyers purchasing new homes — a policy with few international precedents outside the United States. Critics have labelled it regressive and inflationary, warning it may stoke demand without meaningfully improving affordability.
The Grattan Institute’s Brendan Coates described both sets of policies as adding heat to prices. Economist Saul Eslake was blunter, calling the competing promises a case of “who can throw more kerosene on the fire”.
Still, the response from voters has been more forgiving. Polling shows a slight preference for Labor’s package, with 40 per cent of voters favouring it over the Coalition’s (27 per cent). However, this is not a ringing endorsement and is more an indication that neither party has successfully got this policy area right.
The “bank of Mum and Dad”
Amid the debate on housing affordability, Mr Dutton introduced his 20-year-old son, Harry, who spoke of the difficulties he faced saving up for a deposit. If the idea behind the move was to show that housing affordability cuts across class lines, the execution was seen as falling flat. Rather than identifying with struggling voters, many saw it as a reminder of Mr Dutton’s considerable property-based wealth — and an awkward sidestep of the obvious question: why not just help your kids buy a house?
Mr Dutton eventually said he would assist “at some stage”, but by then the moment had passed. The decision to bring his son into the campaign and talk about home ownership drew scrutiny — not just on the Coalition’s housing policy, but on Mr Dutton’s own campaign instincts by not being prepared for the most obvious question.
The episode reflected a broader challenge for the Liberal leader — how to connect personally with voters while under intense scrutiny, particularly when aiming to have policy and personal narrative intersect.
Trump’s long shadow
That dynamic was even more pronounced when it came to Mr Trump. The US president’s impact on this campaign is not just rhetorical — it is now measurable. Polling by Resolve shows that a third of voters say they are less likely to vote for Mr Dutton because of their views on Mr Trump. Only 21 per cent say the same of Mr Albanese. Labor, particularly Treasurer Jim Chalmers, has been keen to characterise the Coalition as Trump imitators.
The damage was compounded when Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, one of Mr Dutton’s highest-profile lieutenants, mimicked Mr Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan at a campaign event. Mr Dutton leaned into the situation, encouraging reporters to ask Senator Price more questions. That decision, like others before it, cost him another day of clear messaging. It did not help that after she accused the media of being “obsessed” with Mr Trump, a photo appeared in the media of Senator Price wearing a MAGA cap and holding a Donald Trump Christmas decoration.
Labor leads, but warns against overconfidence
While Labor’s polling lead has grown in recent weeks — with its two-party preferred vote now in the low to mid-50s — the party is openly warning against complacency. Mr Albanese has repeatedly cited the ghosts of 2019, when Bill Shorten was widely tipped to win, only to fall short on election day.
The prime minister has also been careful to downplay any suggestion he is already looking ahead to a third term. A comment to that effect on a podcast was quickly walked back, with Mr Albanese clarifying that he was affirming his intention to serve a full second term if re-elected.
In keeping with that caution, Mr Albanese has taken a steady-as-she-goes (or lacklustre, depending on your view) approach to campaigning. While it has mostly worked, the campaign has not been entirely gaffe-free — a clumsy public exchange with Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek at the launch drew unwanted attention to already well-known internal Labor Party tensions.
The second leaders’ debate: more reinforcement than revelation
Last night’s debate was billed as one of the few remaining high-profile opportunities for Mr Dutton to reset the race. Rather than producing a breakthrough moment, the debate mostly reaffirmed existing trends — with Labor retaining its lead and the Coalition still searching for a way to shift momentum back in its favour.
Instead of finding a much-needed circuit-breaker, Mr Dutton spent much of the debate on the defensive. His most significant stumble was on national security, when he was forced to admit he was wrong in claiming Indonesia’s President had confirmed reports of Russian military aircraft being based in West Papua.
The housing discussion produced one of the more animated clashes, with Mr Dutton accusing Mr Albanese of dishonesty over whether Treasury had modelled changes to negative gearing. Mr Albanese denied commissioning the work, but the exchange opened a line of attack that Mr Dutton was happy to pursue, repeating that the prime minister “has a problem with the truth”.
The third force: independents, influencers, and the fragmented campaign
Even as the major parties battle over housing and tax, the real structure of the election is less binary than it appears. Voters are increasingly looking beyond the big two — to the Greens, teals, and a growing cast of minor party and independent candidates.
Essential polling this week revealed an interesting data point: when asked who they would prefer to form government, more voters said “someone else” than backed either major party. That fragmented mood is reflected in media consumption habits too, with younger Australians relying more heavily on influencers and non-traditional sources of authority and information.
Both parties have taken notice. Mr Albanese has embraced long-form influencer interviews and included podcasters in pre-budget briefings. The Coalition, is also trying to catch the algorithmic wave and the result is a campaign playing out across multiple stages: the nightly news, the campaign trail, the debate stage — and a thousand TikTok feeds.
What the polls say
The past week’s polling reaffirms the continuing shift in momentum toward Labor, with nearly all major polls now showing the party leading on two-party preferred (2PP). Resolve Strategic saw the most dramatic movement, swinging from a previous 50–50 to Labor ahead 53.5–46.5, with the party’s primary vote rising two points to 31 per cent, while the Coalition fell three to 34 per cent and the Greens held steady at 13 per cent. Roy Morgan has Labor holding a 54.5–45.5 lead on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, though primary votes show Labor down half a point to 32 per cent, the Coalition up slightly to 33.5 per cent, and the Greens up to 14.5 per cent. Essential Research also shows movement, with Labor now leading 50–45 on its 2PP+ measure (excluding 5 per cent undecided), and on primary votes Labor rose to 31 per cent, the Coalition dropped to 32 per cent, and the Greens edged up to 13 per cent. Newspoll, while more stable, still shows Labor ahead 52–48, with the Coalition primary slipping to 35 per cent — it’s lowest since October 2023 — while Labor and the Greens remain on 33 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the Freshwater Strategy poll remains the most Coalition-friendly, showing a 50–50 tie on 2PP, with primaries unchanged at Labor 32 per cent, Coalition 39 per cent, and the Greens 12 per cent.
Leadership ratings also trended in Labor’s favour. Mr Albanese saw a marked improvement in Resolve, returning to net positive territory at 45 per cent approval (up six), with a preferred Prime Minister lead of 46–30 over Mr Dutton. Newspoll likewise saw Mr Albanese’s net approval improve to -4 (up from -11), with his preferred PM lead expanding to 49–38. Essential shows Mr Albanese steady at 44 per cent approval versus 47 per cent disapproval, while Mr Dutton declined slightly to 39 per cent approval and 48 per cent disapproval. Notably, Essential’s issue-based questions show Mr Albanese outperforming Mr Dutton even on areas traditionally seen as Coalition strengths, including national security.
Meanwhile, an MRP seat projection by RedBridge and Accent Research gives Labor a minimum of 66 seats, the Coalition 55, and 15 to independents and minor parties, with 14 seats too close to call. While some projections are unconventional — including potential Coalition gains in Kooyong and Brisbane — the overall picture reflects a competitive, but Labor-favouring, landscape.
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